"How quickly does a warehouse in Almaty pay back?" is one of the most common questions our clients ask. There is no single universal answer: it all depends on the intended use, area, location, and whether you include land cost in the calculation. We break down two real scenarios using concrete figures from the Almaty market in 2026 — and show what drives a 2–3× difference in payback periods.
4,700 ₸/m²
class A warehouse lease rate in Almaty
per month as of January 2026 — down 15% year-on-year due to a record 320,000 m² supply addition
3,900 ₸/m²
class B warehouse lease rate in Almaty
down 12% vs 2024; market floor — from 2,500 ₸/m² (unheated / Kapshagai)
100,000–140,000 ₸/m²
warehouse construction cost
turnkey heated warehouse in Almaty 2026 — including seismic reinforcement and engineering systems
6–9 years
typical ROI for lease-to-earn
excluding land; including land — 10–14 years. Own-use scenario is faster
Two ROI Scenarios for an Almaty Warehouse
Before running the numbers, it is important to align on methodology. Two fundamentally different scenarios apply:
Scenario A — Investment: you build a warehouse, lease it out, and earn rental income. ROI = the time to recover your capital from rental payments.
Scenario B — Operational: you build a warehouse for your own operations and "save" on rent. ROI = the time for the saved rent to offset the investment.
Scenario B typically shows a better ROI — because you are "saving" at market rate, not just earning at yield rate.
Scenario A: Build a Warehouse and Lease It Out
Assumptions: heated warehouse, 1,500 m², Alatau District, Almaty
Investment Side
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Turnkey construction (including seismic reinforcement, engineering, floors) | 160,000,000 ₸ |
| Land plot, 3,000 m² (Alatau District, ~90,000 ₸/m²) | 270,000,000 ₸ |
| Design + state review + permits | 10,000,000 ₸ |
| Site works, fencing, gatehouse | 8,000,000 ₸ |
| Total investment | 448,000,000 ₸ |
Revenue Side
Leasing 85% of area (1,275 m²) at class B rate — 3,900 ₸/m²/month:
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue (100% occupancy) | 1,500 × 3,900 × 12 = 70,200,000 ₸/year |
| Realistic occupancy (85%) | 59,670,000 ₸/year |
| Expenses: property tax (1.5% of book value) | ~2,400,000 ₸/year |
| Expenses: maintenance, insurance, security | ~3,600,000 ₸/year |
| Net income | ~53,670,000 ₸/year |
ROI
| Calculation Variant | Payback Period |
|---|---|
| Construction only (excluding land) | 160M / 53.7M = 3.0 years |
| Construction + land | 448M / 53.7M = 8.3 years |
| Accounting for 5%/year asset appreciation | 6–7 years (factoring in growth in asset value) |
Land is the primary ROI driver
Scenario B: Build a Warehouse for Own Business Use
In this scenario you do not receive rental income — you "save" on the rent you would have paid for someone else's warehouse.
Assumptions: same — 1,500 m², Alatau District
Annual Rent Savings
| Lease Alternative | Annual Cost |
|---|---|
| Class A (4,700 ₸/m²/month) | 84,600,000 ₸/year |
| Class B (3,900 ₸/m²/month) | 70,200,000 ₸/year |
| Unheated (2,500 ₸/m²/month) | 45,000,000 ₸/year |
ROI for Own-Use Scenario
| Investment | Annual saving vs Class B lease | Payback Period |
|---|---|---|
| Construction only: 160M | 70.2M / year | 2.3 years |
| Construction + land: 448M | 70.2M / year | 6.4 years |
After 6–7 years you will have:
- The investment fully recovered
- An asset on the balance sheet worth 500–600 million tenge
- Operating costs limited to building maintenance (~5–6M/year)
How Vacancy Affects Investor ROI
Current market vacancy at 15.1% is a real operational risk for investors.
| Warehouse Occupancy | Annual Income | Payback Period (excl. land) |
|---|---|---|
| 100% | 70,200,000 ₸ | 2.3 years |
| 85% (realistic scenario) | 59,670,000 ₸ | 2.7 years |
| 70% (high market vacancy) | 49,140,000 ₸ | 3.3 years |
| 50% (pessimistic) | 35,100,000 ₸ | 4.6 years |
2026: a good time to build — a difficult time for speculative leasing
Tax Component of ROI
Taxes cannot be ignored in a ROI calculation:
| Tax | Rate | ROI Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Property tax | 1.5% of book value/year | ~2.4M ₸/year for a 160M ₸ asset |
| Land tax | zone-dependent, ~150–600 ₸/m²/year | ~450,000–1,800,000 ₸/year |
| CIT on rental income | 20% (legal entity) | reduces net income by 20% |
| VAT | 12% (when turnover exceeds 20,000 MCI) | lease rate may be quoted inclusive of VAT |
After-tax calculation (Scenario A, 85% occupancy):
| Indicator | Amount |
|---|---|
| Rental revenue | 59,670,000 ₸ |
| Less CIT 20% | –11,934,000 ₸ |
| Less property tax | –2,400,000 ₸ |
| Less land tax | –900,000 ₸ |
| Less maintenance costs | –3,600,000 ₸ |
| Net income after tax | ~40,836,000 ₸/year |
| ROI (excl. land) | 160 / 40.8 = 3.9 years |
5-Year and 10-Year Horizon: Final Comparison
Warehouse 1,500 m², heated, Alatau District, excluding land (160M tenge)
| Horizon | Investment income | Operational savings |
|---|---|---|
| 5 years | 40.8M × 5 = 204M ₸ (recovered + 44M) | 70.2M × 5 = 351M ₸ (recovered twice over) |
| 10 years | 408M ₸ + asset 200–250M | 702M ₸ + asset 200–250M |
Get a custom ROI calculation for your Almaty project
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FAQ
What area size delivers the best ROI?
ROI improves with scale — building a larger facility benefits from economies of scale. For Almaty, the optimal range is 1,000–3,000 m²: large enough for per-m² cost efficiency, small enough to remain liquid for resale.
What if I build with LSTK instead of heavy steel structures?
LSTK (light-gauge steel framing) is cheaper to fabricate, but in Almaty's seismic zone (8–9 magnitude) it requires thorough calculation. A 10–20% saving on the frame is possible, but not by compromising on seismic reinforcement — that is not acceptable.
Can land be taken on lease?
Within SEZ Alatau, land is provided under a preferential lease with a right to purchase after production launch. This significantly reduces the initial investment and improves ROI.