Almaty's warehouse property market flipped in 2025: after years of supply shortage, the market suddenly swung to surplus. A record 320,000 m² of new warehouses were delivered, vacancy jumped 8.6-fold — from 1.8% to 15.1%. Rental rates fell. This has created a fundamentally new situation for business owners: renting has become cheaper, but building now is also attractive — contractors are competing for orders. Let's run the numbers honestly.
4,700 ₸/m²
Class A warehouse rent
per month, down 15% vs 2024 — Almaty market data as of early 2026
15.1%
warehouse vacancy in Almaty
January 2026 — up from 1.8% in one year, approximately 158,400 m² available
320,000 m²
new warehouses delivered in 2025
a record in Almaty's history, 3.5x more than 2024
from 23,500 ₸/m²
building your own warehouse
cold hangar turnkey — heated with sandwich panels from 65,000–80,000 ₸/m²
What Changed in the Market in 2025
Before 2025, good warehouses in Almaty had to be snapped up — vacancy held at 1–2% and tenants queued. In 2025, major private investors and developers simultaneously delivered a record volume: 13 new projects totalling 320,000 m².
The largest projects to reach the market:
- Focus Aksengir — 52,200 m² (northern industrial zone)
- Eurasian Logistics Park — 50,300 m²
- Mercury Logistics — 44,000 m²
The result: supply outpaced demand, rates fell, and tenant choice expanded. But does this mean building your own warehouse is no longer worthwhile?
Renting: Advantages and Real Drawbacks
What Renting Offers
Advantages:
- No need for large upfront capital investment
- Fast start — you can move in within 1–4 weeks
- Flexibility: you can change location or size as the business evolves
- In 2026 supply is abundant — choice across class, location and price
Current rental rates in Almaty (early 2026):
| Class | Rate ₸/m²/month | Typical Properties |
|---|---|---|
| Class A | 4,700 ₸ | Focus Aksengir, Eurasian LP, Mercury |
| Class B | 3,900 ₸ | Properties built 2018–2022 |
| Unheated / industrial estate | 2,500–3,500 ₸ | Kapshagay highway, old industrial zones |
Disadvantages of Renting
- Money with nothing to show for it: over 10 years of renting a 2,000 m² Class B warehouse you pay 936 million tenge and own nothing
- Contract instability: the landlord may not renew or may raise the rate
- Limited customisation: you cannot adapt the space to your specific needs (cold chain, special flooring, overhead crane)
- Seismic risk: in a rented facility you have no control over the structural condition
Renting is cheaper — but temporarily
Building Your Own Warehouse: Advantages and Disadvantages
Advantages
- Asset on the balance sheet: the building is capital that can be pledged, sold or transferred
- Business customisation: cold chain, special floors, racking height, overhead crane
- Protection from rent increases: construction cost is fixed, rent is not
- Option to sublease: additional income during periods of underutilisation
Disadvantages
- Significant upfront investment: 50–300+ million tenge depending on area
- Timeline: 4–8 months from start to occupancy
- Mandatory state expert review in Almaty: seismic zone — no permit without expert review
- Land is a separate issue: plots in Alatau district industrial zones from 60,000–130,000 ₸/m²
Real Construction Costs (heated warehouse, Almaty 2026)
| Area | Approximate Cost | Price per m² |
|---|---|---|
| 500 m² | 55–75 million ₸ | 110,000–150,000 ₸/m² |
| 1,000 m² | 100–140 million ₸ | 100,000–140,000 ₸/m² |
| 2,000 m² | 180–260 million ₸ | 90,000–130,000 ₸/m² |
| 5,000 m² | 400–600 million ₸ | 80,000–120,000 ₸/m² |
Includes foundation, steel frame with seismic reinforcement, sandwich panels, engineering systems, flooring and gates. Excludes land.
Financial Comparison: 10-Year Horizon
Scenario: need 1,500 m² of warehouse space in Almaty's Alatau district
Option A — Rent (Class B, 3,900 ₸/m²/month)
| Period | Cost |
|---|---|
| Years 1–3 (current rates) | 3,900 × 1,500 × 36 = 210,600,000 ₸ |
| Years 4–6 (rate increase +15%) | 4,485 × 1,500 × 36 = 242,190,000 ₸ |
| Years 7–10 (further +10%) | 4,934 × 1,500 × 48 = 355,248,000 ₸ |
| Total over 10 years | ~808,000,000 ₸ |
| Asset owned | 0 |
Option B — Build (heated warehouse, 1,500 m²)
| Item | Cost |
|---|---|
| Turnkey construction | ~160,000,000 ₸ |
| Land plot (3,000 m²) | ~270,000,000 ₸ |
| Total investment | ~430,000,000 ₸ |
| Operating costs over 10 years | ~80,000,000 ₸ |
| Market value of the property after 10 years | 500–700 million ₸ |
| Net position after 10 years | asset worth 500+ million ₸ with total expenditure of 510 million |
Building is more profitable with a 5–7 year horizon
When to Rent
- Business is younger than 2–3 years, space needs may grow or shrink
- No certainty on location (testing a new market)
- Urgency — the timeline does not allow for construction
- Startup or new product: test demand first, then invest in infrastructure
- Limited capital: better deployed in working capital than locked in bricks
When to Build
- Operating in Almaty for 3+ years with a stable business
- Need specialisation: cold chain, special floors, overhead crane, chemical storage
- Planning to scale — an owned warehouse does not constrain growth
- Access to financing available (leasing from 10% down payment, bank credit)
- Want to build an asset, not just an operational base
Hybrid Strategy: Rent While You Build
The optimal scenario for many Almaty businesses in 2026:
- Rent in a high-vacancy market (conditions are good right now)
- Simultaneously start designing and arranging a land plot
- In 8–12 months move into the owned building
- Release the rented warehouse — or keep it as backup/for subleasing
With current vacancy at 15% — tenants are in a strong negotiating position. Use this: ask for 3–6 rent-free months in lieu of fit-out, or a fixed rate for 3 years.
Calculate whether renting or building is better for your business
StroyHub engineers will prepare a financial comparison for your volume and location in Almaty — within 24 hours.