Kazakhstan remains one of the fastest-growing warehouse markets in the region. 2025 became a structural transition year: supply expanded rapidly, vacancy normalized from extreme lows, and rental rates stayed elevated in Class A assets.
1.78M m²
quality stock
2025 baseline
+15%
annual growth
market expansion pace
5,800-6,000 ₸
class A rent
per m² / month baseline
2.7M m²
2026 target
market scale trajectory
Snapshot: where the market stands
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Quality warehouse stock | 1.78M m² |
| YoY growth | +15% |
| Vacancy (2025 baseline) | 5.4% |
| Planned new supply | ~920,000 m² (Q3 2025-Q4 2026) |
| Class A rental baseline | 5,800-6,000 ₸/m²/month |
Key demand drivers
- e-commerce scale-up and stricter delivery SLAs,
- transit and corridor logistics potential,
- continued expansion of large marketplace operators,
- regional retail distribution network development.
Vacancy and rent dynamics
Vacancy rising from extreme shortage levels does not automatically mean weak demand. In this cycle, it mostly reflects new supply entering the market. Rental growth remains supported by quality demand, construction cost pressure, and tenant preference for modern Class A stock.
Build vs lease perspective
For businesses with a medium- to long-term horizon, owning logistics infrastructure can become economically attractive versus long-term lease exposure, especially in high-utilization scenarios.
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We can compare lease vs build scenarios for your target size and location in Kazakhstan.
2026 outlook
- supply expansion continues,
- vacancy likely stabilizes in a healthy corridor,
- rent growth moderates versus prior peak rates,
- quality differentiation between assets becomes stronger.